Box Office and Oscar Predictions

Box office estimate for 2016:
Estimates of box office for 2016 comment when you inevitably disagree, and of course box office varies depending on how good the films are, when they come out, how much the studio advertises it and more movies may be in 2016 that haven't been announced and some of these movies will be pushed back to later years or cancelled all together.

Estimate Rank	Name	Previous or Similar Earnings	Estimate Earnings K	Estimate Earnings T	Info/Synopsis
1	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	MOS:$668, DNR:$1,085	$1,200.00	$1,150.00
2	Captain America: Civil War	WS:$715, AOU:$1,401	$1,200.00	$1,200.00
3	Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them	HPDHpt2:$1,342	$1,000	$900
4	Star Wars: Rogue One	Ep3:$849	$1,000	$900
5	Finding Dory	FN:$937, TS3: $1,063, MU: $744	$1,000	$800
6	Ice Age: Collision Course	IACD:$877	$900	$700
7	X-Men Apocalypse	DOFP:$748	$800	$700
8	Alice Through the Looking Glass	AIWL:$1,025	$800	$500
9	The Jungle Book	C:$542, M:$758	$700
10	Independence Day: Resurgence	ID:$817	$600
11	Kung Fu Panda 3	KFP2:$666	$600
12	Moana	F:$1,274	$600
13	Zootopia	BH6:$658, WIR:$471	$600
14	The Secret Life of Pets	M:$1,004, DM:$543	$600
15	Suicide Squad	DNR:$1,085	$600
16	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Half Shell	TMNT:$485	$500
17	The Bourne Betrayal	BU:$443	$500
18	Star Trek Beyond	STID:$467	$500
19	Doctor Strange	AM:$518, AOU:$1,401	$400
20	Gambit	DOFP:$748, TW:$415	$400
21	Ghostbusters	G:$295	$400
22	Deadpool	Kingsman:$407	$400
23	Now You See Me: The Second Act	NYSM:$352	$400
24	Warcraft	HBotFA:$956	$400
25	Pete's Dragon	C:$542	$400
26	The BFG	C:$542, M:$758	$400		Spielberg
27	Tarzan	C:$542, M:$758	$400
28	Big Trouble in Little China	SA:$469, H:$243	$400
29	The 5th wave	WorldWZ:$540	$300
30	Knights of the Roundtable: King Arthur	RH(2010):$322	$300
31	Book of Henry		$300
32	Central Intelligence	SA:$469, H:$243	$300
33	Bad Neighbors 2	N:$268	$300
34	The Huntsman	SWatH:$397	$300
35	Allegiant Part 1	I:$295	$300
36	Angry Birds	Lego:$469 Rio$485	$300
37	The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist	tC:$318	$300
38	Collateral Beauty		$300		Will smith, Rooney Mara
39	Hail, Caesar	Argo: $232	$200
40	London has Fallen	OHF:$161	$200
41	Passengers	tM:$573, Grav:$723	$200
42	Assassin's Creed	Hitman(2015):$82	$200
43	Trolls	Lego:$469	$200
44	Sausage Party	South Park: $83			Seph rogan, R rated animated comedy
45	Ben-Hur	Noah:$362	$200		(1959)When a Jewish prince is betrayed and sent into slavery by a Roman friend, he regains his freedom and comes back for revenge.
46	Ride Along 2	RA:$154	$200
47	Triple Nine		$200
48	Grimsby	Spy:$236	$200		Spy Comedy
49	Risen	Noah:$362 Exodus:$268	$200
50	Gods of Egypt	Exodus:$268	$200
51	Going in Style		$200		Morgan Freeman, Three retirees plan a bank heist.
52	The Big Short		$200
53	Mile 22		$200
54	Jhon wick 2
55	The Nice Guys	KissKBangB:$16	$200
56	Queen of Katwe		$150
57	Geostorm		$100		As a man heads into space to prevent climate-controlling satellites from creating a storm of epic proportions, his brother discovers a plot to assassinate the president.
58	Underworld: Next Generation	UA:$160	$100
59	Inferno	CapPhil:$219	$100		After waking up in a hospital room in Florence, Italy, with no memory of what has occurred for the last few days, Robert Langdon suddenly finds himself the target of a manhunt. With the help of Dr. Sienna Brooks and his knowledge of symbology, Langdon will try to escape whilst solving the most intricate riddle he's ever faced.
60	Pride and Prejudice and Zombies	WarmBodies:$117	$100		Jane Austen's classic tale of the tangled relationships between lovers from different social classes in 19th century England is faced with a new challenge -- an army of undead zombies.
61	Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children				Tim Burton
62	Sly Cooper	NutJob: $120	$100
63	Kubo and the two strings		$100		Kubo lives a quiet, normal life in a small shoreside village until a spirit from the past turns his life upside down by re-igniting an age-old vendetta. This causes all sorts of havoc as gods and monsters chase Kubo who, in order to survive, must locate a magical suit of armor once worn by his late father, a legendary Samurai warrior.
64	The Accountant		$100		Affleck, Kendrick small movie
65	The Purge: Origins	tPA:$111	$100
66	How to Be Single	tOtherWoman:$197	$100		New York City is full of lonely hearts seeking the right match, and what Alice, Robin, Lucy, Meg, Tom and David all have in common is the need to learn how to be single in a world filled with ever-evolving definitions of love.
67	The Lake		$100		A team of Navy SEALs discover an underwater treasure in a Bosnian lake.
68	Michelle Darnell	Tammy:$100	$100		Melissa McCarthy RomCom
69	Mike and Dave need wedding dates		$100		Anna Kendrick, Zac Efron RomCom
70	Dads Army	MonumentsMen:$155	$100
71	Eddie the Eagle		$100
72	Friday the 13th	Ft13(2009):$91	$90
73	Looking for Alaska	PT:$85, FiOS:$307	$80		Next John Green Novel
74	Mechanic: Resurrection	M:$62	$70
75	Zoolander 2	Z:$61	$70
76	La La Land	BeginAgain:$63	$70		A jazz pianist falls for an aspiring actress in Los Angeles.
77	The Magnificent Seven				A private eye investigates the apparent suicide of a fading porn star in 1970s Los Angeles and uncovers a conspiracy.
78	The Circle				Western, Chris Pratt
79	The Great Wall				Emma watson, tom hanks, karen gillan
80	The Founder				Matt Damon, A mystery centered around the construction of the Great Wall of China.
81	Ratchet & Clank				Michael Keaton, The story of McDonald's founder, Ray Kroc.
82	Dirty Grandpa	tAM:$40
83	Me Before you				Hugh Jackson Drama
84	Kubo And the Two Strings				Zac Efron, Right before his wedding, an uptight guy is tricked into driving his grandfather, a perverted former Army general, to Florida for spring break.
85	Snowden				Emilia Clark, J Coleman Romance
86	The Purge 3
87	The Finest Hours
88	13 Hours
89	Midnight Special
90	Everybody Wants Some
91	Story of Your Life
92	Free Fire
93	Tales of Tales
94	Billy Lynn's Long walk
95	She Who Bring Gifts
96	Bastards
97	How to Talk To Girld At Parties
98	The Witch
99	Silence
100	The Bird of a Nation

Other Films:
jumanji
The lost city of Z
Race
The Forest
The Boy
Airlift
The choice
Mohenjo Daro
Raees
Fan
Baahi: A Rebel for love
The Shower

Oscar Predictions

Spotlight my prediction to win

Best Pictures Guess	Fall short	Disliked
Sicario	Everest	Truth
Ex Machina	Legend	By the sea
The Martian	The Walk	The 33
Steve Jobs	Strait Outa Compton	Concussion
Spotlight	Suffragette
Creed	Black Mass
The Big Short	Beasts of no nation - netflix
The Revenent	Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight	Into the heart of the Sea
Brooklyn	Trumbo
Carol	Joy
	The Danish Girl
	Macbeth

Nov 13-15 2015 UK & US Box Office Breakdown

UK Box office
1) Spectre - week 3 - £7.8
2)The Lady In the Van - New - £2.3
3) Hotel Transylvania 2 - week 5 - £0.9
4) Prem Ratan Dhan Payo - New - £0.9
5) Steve Jobs - New - £0.9

Steve jobs doing a bit better then in the US but a very strong opening for The lady in the Van. Spectre still holding strong.

US Box Office
1) Spectre - week 2 - $33.7
2) The Peanuts Movie - week 2 - $24.0
3) Love the Coopers (Christmas with the Coopers in UK) - New - $8.3
4) The Martian - week 7 - $6.7
5) The 33 - New - $5.8

Good opening for the 33, it isn't wildly loved.

Opening in UK
Hunger games Mocking Jay Part 2
Metacritic: 66
Rotten Tomatoes: 73%
Your know whats up

The Dressmaker
Metacritic: 47
Rotten Tomatoes: 66%
Ausse film about a posh lady going back to her rural roots.

The Perfect Guy
Metacritic: 36
Rotten Tomatoes: 17%
utter trash romace

UK box office breakdown Nov 6-8 2015

UK Box office:
1) Spectre - week 2 - £13.1
2) Hotel Transylvania 2 - week 4 - £1.1
3) Brooklyn - new - £1.0
4) Pan - week 4 - £0.5
5) Burnt - new - £0.4

Spectre had massive drop off at 68.8% that is much more then normal but still a strong performance. Also Hotel T is once again decreasing with a drop off at 55.1% I guess last week was due to counter programming from Spectre.
Brooklyn had a good opening I expect they are content with that but Bradley coopers Burnt on the other hand really suffered from bad reviews, once again proving star power isn't a drawing force in cinema these days. An even bigger flog was Nicholas Holt's Kill your friends coming in 11th with only £102 thousand maybe this is partly due to only being in under 200 theaters but still disappointing. And scouts guide to the zombie apocalypse I wont even grase with capital letters!

US Box Office:
1) Spectre - new - $70.4
2) The Peanuts Movie - new - $44.2
3) The Martian - week 6 - $9.1
4) Goosebumps - week 4 - $6.8
5) Bridge of Spies - week 4 - $5.8

Spectre opens respectfully with more than MI5 but less than Skyfall did in the US ($88.3). The martian holding in in week 6 is really impressive as well.

Opening this week UK:
Steve Jobs
Metacritic: 82
Rotten Tomatoes: 85%
Although it has done bad at the US box office critics love this and could be possible Oscar nomination for Fassbender. Biopic about Steve Jobs taking place behind the scenes of some of his most influential press conferences, based on Walter Issacsons's biography of the same name. Directed by Danny Boyle.


Lady In the Van
Metacritic: 69
Rotten Tomatoes: 100%
Maggie Smith is a crazy old lady in a van. So a documentary ? ...

UK Box Office breakdown Oct 30-Nov 1

UK Box office:

1. Spectre - New - £41.3
2. Hotel Transylvania 2 - week 3 - £2.4
3. Pan - week 3 - £0.8
4. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension - week 2 - £0.7
5. Suffragette - week 3 - £0.6

Spectre crushed at the box office breaking records crushing Harry Potter's £25.2m opening (the last one) for all time opening weekend and Skyfalls £21.4m, we will have to see how it does in america next week but Skyfall made $1.1 billion for total box office, Spectre could match or beat this becoming the fifth movie this year to hit $1 billion, and star wards hasn't come out yet. ( maybe mokingjay too but prob not). If a movie in the US made $410 opening weekend that would be utterly impossible, Jurassic world holds the record there at $210.
Also Hotel Transylvania has a +7% increase from last week. Thats insane most films will drop between 40-60% between weeks for at least the first 4 or 5 weeks. 

Pan coming back to third but only because nobody is seeing anything but bond.

It's worth mentioning Inside out still in the top 10 after its 15th week !

Finally UK spent more money in the cinema this week then america ! that's rare!

USA box office:

1. The Martian - week 5 - $11.7
2. Goosebumps - week 3 - $9.9
3. Bridge of Spies - week 3 - $8.4
4. Hotel Transylvania 2 - week 6 -$5.9
5. The Last Witch Hunter - week 2 - $5.2

Very low box office for America. Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse opening in 12th with only $1.8 which is dreadful and Our Brand is Crisis also tanking with $3.2. The Martian is in the number 1 for the 4th time.

Opening this week in UK:

Brooklyn

Metacritic: 88

Rotten Tomatoes : 98%

Romance about an Irish girl that goes to New York and finds love on both side of the Atlantic. People love it possible Oscar nominations

Burnt

Metacitic: 42

Rotten Tomatoes: 29%

Bradly Cooper Cooking movie. In general people like it better then the reviews above suggest but if you want a cooking movie watch last years chef.

Kill your friends

Metacitic: 42

Rotten Tomatoes: 50%

Nicholas Holt movie about the boss of a record company murdering his way to the top. 

The Runner

Metacitic: 39

Rotten Tomatoes: 28%

Nicholas Cage move probably utter trash i dunno.

UK box office: 23-25 Oct 2015

1) Hotel Transylvania 2 - week 2 - £2.3
2) The Martian - week 4 - £1.7
3) Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension- New - £1.5
4) Suffragette - Week 2 - £1.3

5) The Last Witch Hunter - New - £1.2

Happy for Sicario still doing ok at 7th. Paranormal activity did much better in the UK then in america (relative to expected). Hotel Trans holding strong at No' 1.

Opening this week:

Spectre

Metacritic - 69

Rotten Tomatoes - 78%

The new James bond film is the only film released this week and will take the no'1 spot next week. It's the last for before the rights go up for sale and the last for Daniel Craig wrapping up his era of bond. 

So analysis:
US population: 318.9million
UK population: 64.1million
£1 = $1.54
therefore box office: $US => 7.66 * £UK
however I have found it is closer to 10 *£10 i guess less people on average go to the cinema in UK then america or maybe ticket prices are different.

Your guide to box office numbers:
expect around £6m for mid budget films like mission impossible and simular if a movie gets above £10 its done really great.

Your guide to metacritic and rotten tomatoes scores. Good movies are above 60 on both great movies are above 80. Metacritic lets critics score 1 to 100 however rotten tomatoes only allows critics to say weather they like or dislike it. This leads to a nice comparison between them. I find these to be the most reliable rating on the internet as only critics count and many people contribute to them. Critics are better because they dont have selection bias as they see all films and have a better base for comparison between films.

UK Box office break down - 17/18 Oct 2015

1. Hotel Transylvania 2 - Week 1 - £6.3m
2. Suffragette - Week 1 - £2.9m
3. Pan - Week 1 - £2.7m
4. The Martian - Week 3 - £2.4m
5. Crimson Peak - Week 1 - £1m

Points of interest: Poor opening for Pan and Crimson Peak, what is really surprising is the walk only getting £135 thousand in its second week 3 times less then Ledgend made in its 6th week !

Opening this week:

The Last Witch Hunter:

Metacritic: 34

Rotten Tomatoes: 14%

Vin Diesel has brought his D&D character to life and after being cursed with immortality in the past he has lived to the present and is hunting down evil witches that are trying to take over New York with Lord of the Rings Elijah Wood and Game of Thrones Rose Leslie. I don't have high hopes for this one!

Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension

Metacritic: 34

Rotten Tomatoes: 13%

Yer I don't even give enough of a shit to even look up what the synopsis is 

If you want a good movie this week watch Beasts of no Nation on Netflix it's about a child solder in Africa, Idris Elba is in it, its GREAT! but obviously not expecting much on the box office as its only in very limited theaters and you can just watch it on Netflix now ! 

Also Spector opens on Monday ... thats weird, I think they are going fro biggest opening week record ... ill mention it next week